MGH Simulator Predicts Jump In COVID-19 Deaths If Restrictions Are Lifted


This story was updated at 12:28 p.m., April 28, 2020

BOSTON (WBZ NewsRadio) — As Massachusetts considers when it will be safe to reopen the state amid the coronavirus pandemic, Massachusetts General Hospital has released a simulator to analyze the impact of lifting restrictions.

According to the Boston Globe, the COVID-19 Simulator predicted that if restrictions were lifted right now, there would be a major jump in cases. However, if Massachusetts residents continue to socially distance until August, the number of deaths could remain below 5,000.

When WBZ NewsRadio first attempted to access the online tool to run our own simulations, we received a server error. Later, we were able to get it to run, but experienced some technical difficulties and slow loading times.

WBZ NewsRadio was able to run a successful national simulation that showed if the country suddenly dropped restrictions, the death toll would reach 160,000 by the end of August. Currently, about 56,000 Americans have died from the virus.

Gov. Charlie Baker extended the Commonwealth's stay-at-home advisory and closure of non-essential businesses until May 18. The ban on gatherings of 10 or more people will also remain in effect until that date.

On Monday, Boston Mayor Marty Walsh said that the city would not be easing restrictions on May 4.

As of Tuesday morning, Massachusetts has 56,462 cases of COVID-19 with 1,524 from the previous day. 3,003 people have died.

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